ingest: support-analytics-reporter.md

- Source page: Analytics Reporter Agent Personality
- Concepts: RFM-Analysis, Marketing-Attribution
- Updated: index.md (entry fix), overview.md (Support dept), log.md

wiki/concepts/Marketing-Attribution.md

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+---
+title: "Marketing Attribution"
+type: concept
+tags: []
+sources: [support-analytics-reporter]
+last_updated: 2026-04-21
+---
+
+## Aliases
+- 营销归因模型
+- Multi-Touch Attribution（多触点归因）
+- Attribution Modeling
+
+## Definition
+Marketing Attribution（营销归因）是一种数据分析方法，用于将客户的转化收入或转化行为按照用户旅程中各触点（渠道/广告位/活动）的贡献权重进行分配，从而量化不同营销渠道的真实价值，指导预算优化和 ROI 最大化。
+
+## Attribution Models
+
+### 1. Single-Touch（单触点归因）
+| 模型 | 归因逻辑 | 优点 | 缺点 |
+|------|---------|------|------|
+| First Touch | 100% 归因给首个触点 | 识别获客渠道 | 忽视转化路径上的其他渠道 |
+| Last Touch | 100% 归因给末触点 | 识别转化触点 | 忽视品牌建设类触点 |
+
+### 2. Multi-Touch（多触点归因）
+| 模型 | 归因逻辑 | 适用场景 |
+|------|---------|---------|
+| Linear | 平均分配权重 | 各触点均等重要 |
+| Time Decay | 越接近转化时间权重越高 | 短转化周期（B2C电商） |
+| Position Based (U-Shaped) | 首+末各 40%，中间均分剩余 20% | 品牌+效果兼顾 |
+| Data-Driven | 基于 Shapley 值或机器学习模型 | 有足够转化数据支撑 |
+
+### 3. Algorithmic Attribution（算法归因）
+基于 Shapley 值（博弈论）或 logistic 回归/马尔可夫链模型，从数据中自动学习各触点权重，是最精确但数据需求量最大的方案。
+
+## Multi-Touch Attribution Implementation
+
+```sql
+-- Multi-touch attribution with first/last/intermediate weights
+WITH customer_touchpoints AS (
+  SELECT 
+    customer_id,
+    channel,
+    campaign,
+    touchpoint_date,
+    conversion_date,
+    revenue,
+    ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY customer_id ORDER BY touchpoint_date) as touch_sequence,
+    COUNT(*) OVER (PARTITION BY customer_id) as total_touches
+  FROM marketing_touchpoints mt
+  JOIN conversions c ON mt.customer_id = c.customer_id
+  WHERE touchpoint_date <= conversion_date
+),
+attribution_weights AS (
+  SELECT *,
+    CASE 
+      WHEN touch_sequence = 1 AND total_touches = 1 THEN 1.0  -- Single touch
+      WHEN touch_sequence = 1 THEN 0.4                          -- First touch
+      WHEN touch_sequence = total_touches THEN 0.4             -- Last touch
+      ELSE 0.2 / (total_touches - 2)                          -- Middle touches
+    END as attribution_weight
+  FROM customer_touchpoints
+)
+SELECT 
+  channel,
+  campaign,
+  SUM(revenue * attribution_weight) as attributed_revenue,
+  COUNT(DISTINCT customer_id) as attributed_conversions
+FROM attribution_weights
+GROUP BY channel, campaign
+ORDER BY attributed_revenue DESC;
+```
+
+## Campaign ROI Calculation
+
+```sql
+SELECT 
+  campaign_name,
+  SUM(spend) as total_spend,
+  SUM(attributed_revenue) as total_revenue,
+  (SUM(attributed_revenue) - SUM(spend)) / SUM(spend) * 100 as roi_percentage,
+  SUM(attributed_revenue) / SUM(spend) as revenue_multiple,
+  COUNT(conversions) as total_conversions,
+  SUM(spend) / COUNT(conversions) as cost_per_conversion
+FROM campaign_performance
+GROUP BY campaign_name
+ORDER BY roi_percentage DESC;
+```
+
+## Key Metrics
+
+| 指标 | 公式 | 业务含义 |
+|------|------|---------|
+| ROI | (归因收入 - 花费) / 花费 × 100% | 渠道盈利性 |
+| ROAS | 归因收入 / 广告花费 | 广告效率 |
+| CPA | 总花费 / 归因转化数 | 获客成本 |
+| Revenue Multiple | 归因收入 / 花费 | 收入倍数 |
+
+## Connections
+- [[support-analytics-reporter]] — 使用多触点归因模型进行营销效果分析
+- [[Marketing-ROI]] — 归因分析是 ROI 计算的基础
+- [[Business-Intelligence]] — 属 BI 领域的营销分析子方向