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--- a/wiki/concepts/Opportunity-Assessment.md
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+---
+title: "Opportunity Assessment"
+type: concept
+tags: [product-management, prioritization, decision-framework]
+sources: [product-manager.md]
+last_updated: 2026-04-20
+---
+
+## Definition
+机会评估是在讨论解决方案之前编写的文档，通过 RICE 框架量化机会价值，支撑 build/explore/defer/kill 决策。
+
+## Structure
+1. **Why Now?**：市场信号、用户行为变化或竞争压力，为什么现在紧急
+2. **User Evidence**：访谈发现、行为数据、support 信号
+3. **Business Case**：收入影响、成本影响、战略契合度、市场规模
+4. **RICE Prioritization Score**：R × I × C ÷ E
+5. **Options Considered**：构建/MVP/购买/延期选项对比
+6. **Recommendation**：Build / Explore further / Defer / Kill + 理由 + 下一步
+
+## RICE Score Formula
+| Factor | Description |
+|--------|-------------|
+| Reach | 每季度触达用户数 |
+| Impact | 对指标的影响（0.25/0.5/1/2/3） |
+| Confidence | 信心水平（%） |
+| Effort | 人力月数 |
+| **Score** | **(R × I × C) ÷ E** |
+
+## Use Case
+- 在进入 PRD 编写前做优先级决策
+- 对齐 leadership 对战略契合和资源意愿
+- 正式 build/defer/kill 推荐文档化推理
+
+## Connection
+- [[Product Manager Agent]] ← conducts ← [[Opportunity Assessment]]
+- [[RICE Prioritization Score]] ← calculated_in ← [[Opportunity Assessment]]
+- [[Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)]] ← informed_by ← [[Opportunity Assessment]]