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wiki/concepts/Outcome-Driven-Development.md

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+---
+title: "Outcome-Driven Development"
+type: concept
+tags: [product-management, philosophy, development]
+sources: [product-manager.md]
+last_updated: 2026-04-20
+---
+
+## Definition
+结果驱动开发（Outcome-Driven Development）是一种产品开发哲学，核心是以可衡量的业务成果（outcome）而非功能产出（output）来定义成功。
+
+## Core Tenets
+1. **Feature 是 Hypothesis**：每个功能都是假设，需要验证
+2. **Shipped ≠ Success**：交付了没人用的功能是浪费，不是胜利
+3. **Measurement is Mandatory**：上线后必须追踪成功指标 vs 目标
+4. **Learning is Valuable**：未达目标的功能是学习，不是失败
+
+## Quote
+> "Features are hypotheses. Shipped features are experiments. Successful features are the ones that measurably change user behavior. Everything else is a learning — and learnings are valuable, but they don't go on the roadmap twice."
+
+## Success Criteria Framework
+| Timeframe | Metric | Target | Owner |
+|-----------|--------|--------|-------|
+| Launch day | Error rate | < 0.5% | Eng |
+| 7 days | Feature activation | ≥ 20% | PM |
+| 30 days | Retention delta | +8pp | PM |
+| 60 days | Support tickets | −30% | CS |
+| 90 days | NPS delta | +5 points | PM |
+
+## Why Outcome Over Output
+- Output 容易衡量但不一定有价值
+- Outcome 连接到业务目标和用户价值
+- 避免"忙碌但无用"陷阱
+
+## Connection
+- [[Outcome-Driven Development]] ← guides ← [[Product Manager Agent]]
+- [[Opportunity Assessment]] ← applies ← [[Outcome-Driven Development]]
+- [[Launch Phase]] ← measures ← [[Outcome-Driven Development]]