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wiki/concepts/Roadmap-Now-Next-Later.md

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+---
+title: "Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)"
+type: concept
+tags: [product-management, planning, roadmap]
+sources: [product-manager.md]
+last_updated: 2026-04-20
+---
+
+## Definition
+产品路线图是按时间维度（当前季度/下个 1-2 季度/3-6 个月）组织的产品组合视图，通过 Now/Next/Later 三层结构管理产品赌注。
+
+## Three Horizons
+| Horizon | Timeframe | Commitment | Confidence |
+|---------|-----------|------------|------------|
+| Now | 当前季度 | 完全对齐，工程、设计、PM 已达成一致 | 高 |
+| Next | 下个 1-2 季度 | 方向承诺，需要 scoping 后才能开发 | 中 |
+| Later | 3-6 个月 | 战略赌注，未排期，有信号才推进 | 低 |
+
+## Now Section
+包含：initiative、user problem、success metric、owner、status、ETA
+
+## Next Section
+包含：initiative、hypothesis、expected outcome、confidence、blocker
+
+## Later Section
+包含：initiative、strategic hypothesis、signal needed to advance
+
+## Explicit Not-Building List
+公开说明不构建什么及原因，防止重复请求并建立信任。
+
+## North Star Metric
+路线图必须定义北极星指标——最好地捕捉用户是否获得价值和业务是否健康的单一指标。
+
+## Connection
+- [[Product Manager Agent]] ← owns ← [[Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)]]
+- [[Opportunity Assessment]] ← informs ← [[Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)]]
+- [[RICE Prioritization Score]] ← ranks ← [[Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)]]