---
title: "Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)"
type: concept
tags: [product-management, planning, roadmap]
sources: [product-manager.md]
last_updated: 2026-04-20
---

## Definition
产品路线图是按时间维度（当前季度/下个 1-2 季度/3-6 个月）组织的产品组合视图，通过 Now/Next/Later 三层结构管理产品赌注。

## Three Horizons
| Horizon | Timeframe | Commitment | Confidence |
|---------|-----------|------------|------------|
| Now | 当前季度 | 完全对齐，工程、设计、PM 已达成一致 | 高 |
| Next | 下个 1-2 季度 | 方向承诺，需要 scoping 后才能开发 | 中 |
| Later | 3-6 个月 | 战略赌注，未排期，有信号才推进 | 低 |

## Now Section
包含：initiative、user problem、success metric、owner、status、ETA

## Next Section
包含：initiative、hypothesis、expected outcome、confidence、blocker

## Later Section
包含：initiative、strategic hypothesis、signal needed to advance

## Explicit Not-Building List
公开说明不构建什么及原因，防止重复请求并建立信任。

## North Star Metric
路线图必须定义北极星指标——最好地捕捉用户是否获得价值和业务是否健康的单一指标。

## Connection
- [[Product Manager Agent]] ← owns ← [[Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)]]
- [[Opportunity Assessment]] ← informs ← [[Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)]]
- [[RICE Prioritization Score]] ← ranks ← [[Roadmap (Now / Next / Later)]]