959 lines
95 KiB
HTML
959 lines
95 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="en">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
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<link rel="profile" href="http://gmpg.org/xfn/11">
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<title>There is no “Three Mile Island” event coming for software – Surfing Complexity</title>
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<meta name='robots' content='max-image-preview:large' />
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<!-- Async WordPress.com Remote Login -->
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<script id="wpcom_remote_login_js">
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var wpcom_remote_login_extra_auth = '';
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function wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( element_id ) {
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var dom_node = document.getElementById( element_id );
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if ( dom_node ) { dom_node.parentNode.removeChild( dom_node ); }
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}
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function wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_classes( class_name ) {
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var dom_nodes = document.querySelectorAll( '.' + class_name );
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for ( var i = 0; i < dom_nodes.length; i++ ) {
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dom_nodes[ i ].parentNode.removeChild( dom_nodes[ i ] );
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}
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}
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function wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup() {
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_classes( "wpcom_remote_login_msg" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_validate" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_js" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_request_access_iframe" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_request_access_styles" );
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}
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// Watch for messages back from the remote login
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window.addEventListener( "message", function( e ) {
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if ( e.origin === "https://r-login.wordpress.com" ) {
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var data = {};
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try {
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data = JSON.parse( e.data );
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} catch( e ) {
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wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup();
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return;
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}
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN' ) {
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// Clean up the login check iframe
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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var id_regex = new RegExp( /^[0-9]+$/ );
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var token_regex = new RegExp( /^.*|.*|.*$/ );
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if (
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token_regex.test( data.token )
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&& id_regex.test( data.wpcomid )
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) {
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// We have everything we need to ask for a login
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var script = document.createElement( "script" );
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script.setAttribute( "id", "wpcom_remote_login_validate" );
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script.src = '/remote-login.php?wpcom_remote_login=validate'
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+ '&wpcomid=' + data.wpcomid
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+ '&token=' + encodeURIComponent( data.token )
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+ '&host=' + window.location.protocol
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+ '//' + window.location.hostname
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+ '&postid=2725'
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+ '&is_singular=1';
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document.body.appendChild( script );
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}
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP, not logged in, so redirect
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN-REDIRECT' ) {
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window.location = 'https://wordpress.com/log-in?redirect_to=' + window.location.href;
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP, storage access failed, remove the request
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN-REMOVE' ) {
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var css_zap = 'html { -webkit-transition: margin-top 1s; transition: margin-top 1s; } /* 9001 */ html { margin-top: 0 !important; } * html body { margin-top: 0 !important; } @media screen and ( max-width: 782px ) { html { margin-top: 0 !important; } * html body { margin-top: 0 !important; } }';
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var style_zap = document.createElement( 'style' );
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style_zap.type = 'text/css';
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style_zap.appendChild( document.createTextNode( css_zap ) );
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document.body.appendChild( style_zap );
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var e = document.getElementById( 'wpcom_request_access_iframe' );
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e.parentNode.removeChild( e );
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document.cookie = 'wordpress_com_login_access=denied; path=/; max-age=31536000';
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP
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if ( data.msg === 'REQUEST_ACCESS' ) {
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console.log( 'request access: safari' );
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// Check ITP iframe enable/disable knob
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if ( wpcom_remote_login_extra_auth !== 'safari_itp_iframe' ) {
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return;
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}
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// If we are in a "private window" there is no ITP.
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var private_window = false;
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try {
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var opendb = window.openDatabase( null, null, null, null );
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} catch( e ) {
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private_window = true;
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}
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if ( private_window ) {
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console.log( 'private window' );
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return;
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}
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var iframe = document.createElement( 'iframe' );
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iframe.id = 'wpcom_request_access_iframe';
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iframe.setAttribute( 'scrolling', 'no' );
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iframe.setAttribute( 'sandbox', 'allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation' );
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iframe.src = 'https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php?wpcom_remote_login=request_access&origin=' + encodeURIComponent( data.origin ) + '&wpcomid=' + encodeURIComponent( data.wpcomid );
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var css = 'html { -webkit-transition: margin-top 1s; transition: margin-top 1s; } /* 9001 */ html { margin-top: 46px !important; } * html body { margin-top: 46px !important; } @media screen and ( max-width: 660px ) { html { margin-top: 71px !important; } * html body { margin-top: 71px !important; } #wpcom_request_access_iframe { display: block; height: 71px !important; } } #wpcom_request_access_iframe { border: 0px; height: 46px; position: fixed; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; min-width: 100%; z-index: 99999; background: #23282d; } ';
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var style = document.createElement( 'style' );
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style.type = 'text/css';
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style.id = 'wpcom_request_access_styles';
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style.appendChild( document.createTextNode( css ) );
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document.body.appendChild( style );
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document.body.appendChild( iframe );
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}
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if ( data.msg === 'DONE' ) {
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wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup();
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}
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}
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}, false );
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// Inject the remote login iframe after the page has had a chance to load
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// more critical resources
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window.addEventListener( "DOMContentLoaded", function( e ) {
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var iframe = document.createElement( "iframe" );
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iframe.style.display = "none";
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iframe.setAttribute( "scrolling", "no" );
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iframe.setAttribute( "id", "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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iframe.src = "https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php"
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+ "?wpcom_remote_login=key"
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+ "&origin=aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXJmaW5nY29tcGxleGl0eS5ibG9n"
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+ "&wpcomid=30291541"
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+ "&time=" + Math.floor( Date.now() / 1000 );
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document.body.appendChild( iframe );
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}, false );
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</script>
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s2.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//widgets.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s1.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s0.wp.com' />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/feed/" />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » Comments Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/comments/feed/" />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » There is no “Three Mile Island” event coming for software Comments Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2022/10/08/there-is-no-three-mile-island-event-coming-for-software/feed/" />
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<script type="text/javascript">
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/* <![CDATA[ */
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function addLoadEvent(func) {
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var oldonload = window.onload;
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if (typeof window.onload != 'function') {
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window.onload = func;
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} else {
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window.onload = function () {
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oldonload();
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func();
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}
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}
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}
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/* ]]> */
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</script>
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<style id="wp-img-auto-sizes-contain-inline-css">
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img:is([sizes=auto i],[sizes^="auto," i]){contain-intrinsic-size:3000px 1500px}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-img-auto-sizes-contain-inline-css */
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</style>
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<link crossorigin='anonymous' rel='stylesheet' id='all-css-2-1' href='/_static/??-eJxtjEsKgDAMBS9kjbqwuBDPUtog9o9J8fpaEQSRBw8GhoEjC50iY2QIRWRf1i0SWOSstHsYQkr1TPFIsKNXjEbkRPyhVhM18J/0m8M3fFPVlzD3UnbTtWG0J2CTNNk=&cssminify=yes' type='text/css' media='all' />
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<style id="wp-emoji-styles-inline-css">
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img.wp-smiley, img.emoji {
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display: inline !important;
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border: none !important;
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box-shadow: none !important;
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height: 1em !important;
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width: 1em !important;
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margin: 0 0.07em !important;
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vertical-align: -0.1em !important;
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background: none !important;
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padding: 0 !important;
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}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-emoji-styles-inline-css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-library-inline-css">
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:root{--wp-block-synced-color:#7a00df;--wp-block-synced-color--rgb:122,0,223;--wp-bound-block-color:var(--wp-block-synced-color);--wp-editor-canvas-background:#ddd;--wp-admin-theme-color:#007cba;--wp-admin-theme-color--rgb:0,124,186;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-10:#006ba1;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-10--rgb:0,107,160.5;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-20:#005a87;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-20--rgb:0,90,135;--wp-admin-border-width-focus:2px}@media (min-resolution:192dpi){:root{--wp-admin-border-width-focus:1.5px}}.wp-element-button{cursor:pointer}:root .has-very-light-gray-background-color{background-color:#eee}:root .has-very-dark-gray-background-color{background-color:#313131}:root .has-very-light-gray-color{color:#eee}:root .has-very-dark-gray-color{color:#313131}:root .has-vivid-green-cyan-to-vivid-cyan-blue-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#00d084,#0693e3)}:root .has-purple-crush-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#34e2e4,#4721fb 50%,#ab1dfe)}:root .has-hazy-dawn-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#faaca8,#dad0ec)}:root .has-subdued-olive-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#fafae1,#67a671)}:root .has-atomic-cream-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#fdd79a,#004a59)}:root .has-nightshade-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#330968,#31cdcf)}:root .has-midnight-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#020381,#2874fc)}:root{--wp--preset--font-size--normal:16px;--wp--preset--font-size--huge:42px}.has-regular-font-size{font-size:1em}.has-larger-font-size{font-size:2.625em}.has-normal-font-size{font-size:var(--wp--preset--font-size--normal)}.has-huge-font-size{font-size:var(--wp--preset--font-size--huge)}:root .has-text-align-center{text-align:center}:root .has-text-align-left{text-align:left}:root .has-text-align-right{text-align:right}.has-fit-text{white-space:nowrap!important}#end-resizable-editor-section{display:none}.aligncenter{clear:both}.items-justified-left{justify-content:flex-start}.items-justified-center{justify-content:center}.items-justified-right{justify-content:flex-end}.items-justified-space-between{justify-content:space-between}.screen-reader-text{word-wrap:normal!important;border:0;clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;word-break:normal!important}.screen-reader-text:focus{background-color:#ddd;clip-path:none;color:#444;display:block;font-size:1em;height:auto;left:5px;line-height:normal;padding:15px 23px 14px;text-decoration:none;top:5px;width:auto;z-index:100000}html :where(.has-border-color){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-color],[style*=";border-color"],[style*="; border-color"]){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-top-color],[style*=";border-top-color"],[style*="; border-top-color"]){border-top-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-right-color],[style*=";border-right-color"],[style*="; border-right-color"]){border-right-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-bottom-color],[style*=";border-bottom-color"],[style*="; border-bottom-color"]){border-bottom-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-left-color],[style*=";border-left-color"],[style*="; border-left-color"]){border-left-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-width],[style*=";border-width"],[style*="; border-width"]){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-top-width],[style*=";border-top-width"],[style*="; border-top-width"]){border-top-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-right-width],[style*=";border-right-width"],[style*="; border-right-width"]){border-right-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-bottom-width],[style*=";border-bottom-width"],[style*="; border-bottom-width"]){border-bottom-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-left-width],[style*=";border-left-width"],[style*="; border-left-width"]){border-left-style:solid}html :where(img[class*=wp-image-]){height:auto;max-width:100%}:where(figure){margin:0 0 1em}html :where(.is-position-sticky){--wp-admin--admin-bar--position-offset:var(--wp-admin--admin-bar--height,0px)}@media screen and (max-width:600px){html :where(.is-position-sticky){--wp-admin--admin-bar--position-offset:0px}}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/common.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-quote-inline-css">
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.wp-block-quote{box-sizing:border-box;overflow-wrap:break-word}.wp-block-quote.is-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)),.wp-block-quote.is-style-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)){margin-bottom:1em;padding:0 1em}.wp-block-quote.is-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) p,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) p{font-size:1.5em;font-style:italic;line-height:1.6}.wp-block-quote.is-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) cite,.wp-block-quote.is-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) footer,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) cite,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) footer{font-size:1.125em;text-align:right}.wp-block-quote>cite{display:block}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/quote/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-quote-theme-inline-css">
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.wp-block-quote{border-left:.25em solid;margin:0 0 1.75em;padding-left:1em}.wp-block-quote cite,.wp-block-quote footer{color:currentColor;font-size:.8125em;font-style:normal;position:relative}.wp-block-quote:where(.has-text-align-right){border-left:none;border-right:.25em solid;padding-left:0;padding-right:1em}.wp-block-quote:where(.has-text-align-center){border:none;padding-left:0}.wp-block-quote.is-large,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large,.wp-block-quote:where(.is-style-plain){border:none}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/quote/theme.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-heading-inline-css">
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h1:where(.wp-block-heading).has-background,h2:where(.wp-block-heading).has-background,h3:where(.wp-block-heading).has-background,h4:where(.wp-block-heading).has-background,h5:where(.wp-block-heading).has-background,h6:where(.wp-block-heading).has-background{padding:1.25em 2.375em}h1.has-text-align-left[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-lr]),h1.has-text-align-right[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-rl]),h2.has-text-align-left[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-lr]),h2.has-text-align-right[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-rl]),h3.has-text-align-left[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-lr]),h3.has-text-align-right[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-rl]),h4.has-text-align-left[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-lr]),h4.has-text-align-right[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-rl]),h5.has-text-align-left[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-lr]),h5.has-text-align-right[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-rl]),h6.has-text-align-left[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-lr]),h6.has-text-align-right[style*=writing-mode]:where([style*=vertical-rl]){rotate:180deg}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/heading/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-latest-posts-inline-css">
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.wp-block-latest-posts{box-sizing:border-box}.wp-block-latest-posts.alignleft{margin-right:2em}.wp-block-latest-posts.alignright{margin-left:2em}.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list{list-style:none}.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list li{clear:both;overflow-wrap:break-word}.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid:not(.is-layout-grid){display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap}.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid:not(.is-layout-grid) li{margin:0 1.25em 1.25em 0;width:100%}@media (min-width:600px){.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-2:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(50% - .625em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-2:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(2n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-3:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(33.33333% - .83333em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-3:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-4:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(25% - .9375em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-4:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(4n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-5:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(20% - 1em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-5:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(5n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-6:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(16.66667% - 1.04167em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-6:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(6n){margin-right:0}}@media (max-width:600px){.wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-grid[class*=columns-]:not(.has-native-responsive-grid){grid-template-columns:1fr}}:root :where(.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid){padding:0}:root :where(.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list){padding-left:0}.wp-block-latest-posts__post-author,.wp-block-latest-posts__post-date{display:block;font-size:.8125em}.wp-block-latest-posts__post-excerpt,.wp-block-latest-posts__post-full-content{margin-bottom:1em;margin-top:.5em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image a{display:inline-block}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image img{height:auto;max-width:100%;width:auto}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.alignleft{float:left;margin-right:1em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.alignright{float:right;margin-left:1em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.aligncenter{margin-bottom:1em;text-align:center}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/latest-posts/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-list-inline-css">
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ol,ul{box-sizing:border-box}:root :where(.wp-block-list.has-background){padding:1.25em 2.375em}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/list/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-paragraph-inline-css">
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.is-small-text{font-size:.875em}.is-regular-text{font-size:1em}.is-large-text{font-size:2.25em}.is-larger-text{font-size:3em}.has-drop-cap:not(:focus):first-letter{float:left;font-size:8.4em;font-style:normal;font-weight:100;line-height:.68;margin:.05em .1em 0 0;text-transform:uppercase}body.rtl .has-drop-cap:not(:focus):first-letter{float:none;margin-left:.1em}p.has-drop-cap.has-background{overflow:hidden}:root :where(p.has-background){padding:1.25em 2.375em}:where(p.has-text-color:not(.has-link-color)) a{color:inherit}p.has-text-align-left[style*="writing-mode:vertical-lr"],p.has-text-align-right[style*="writing-mode:vertical-rl"]{rotate:180deg}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/paragraph/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-search-inline-css">
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.wp-block-search__button{margin-left:10px;word-break:normal}.wp-block-search__button.has-icon{line-height:0}.wp-block-search__button svg{fill:currentColor;height:1.25em;min-height:24px;min-width:24px;vertical-align:text-bottom;width:1.25em}:where(.wp-block-search__button){border:1px solid #ccc;padding:6px 10px}.wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{display:flex;flex:auto;flex-wrap:nowrap;max-width:100%}:where(.wp-block-search__label){width:100%}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__button{box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-shrink:0;justify-content:center;margin-left:0;max-width:100%}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{min-width:0!important;transition-property:width}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__input{flex-basis:100%;transition-duration:.3s}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden,.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{overflow:hidden}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden .wp-block-search__input{border-left-width:0!important;border-right-width:0!important;flex-basis:0;flex-grow:0;margin:0;min-width:0!important;padding-left:0!important;padding-right:0!important;width:0!important}:where(.wp-block-search__input){-webkit-appearance:initial;-moz-appearance:initial;appearance:none;border:1px solid #949494;flex-grow:1;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;letter-spacing:inherit;line-height:inherit;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;min-width:3rem;padding:8px;text-decoration:unset!important;text-transform:inherit}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper){background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #949494;box-sizing:border-box;padding:4px}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) .wp-block-search__input{border:none;border-radius:0;padding:0 4px}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) .wp-block-search__input:focus{outline:none}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) :where(.wp-block-search__button){padding:4px 8px}.wp-block-search.aligncenter .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{margin:auto}.wp-block[data-align=right] .wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{float:right}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/search/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-search-theme-inline-css">
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:where(.wp-block-search .wp-block-search__label){font-weight:700}.wp-block-search__button{border:1px solid #ccc;padding:.375em .625em}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/search/theme.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-library-inline-css-extra">
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.has-text-align-justify {
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text-align:justify;
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}
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.has-text-align-justify{text-align:justify;}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-block-library-inline-css */
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</style>
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<style id="classic-theme-styles-inline-css">
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.wp-block-button__link{background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;color:#fff;font-size:1.125em;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);text-decoration:none}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff}.wp-block-accordion-heading{margin:0}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle{background-color:inherit!important;color:inherit!important}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:not(:focus-visible){outline:none}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:focus,.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:hover{background-color:inherit!important;border:none;box-shadow:none;color:inherit;padding:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20,1em) 0;text-decoration:none}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:focus-visible{outline:auto;outline-offset:0}.wp-block-tab:not(.has-text-color){color:inherit!important}.wp-block-tab:not(.has-background){background-color:inherit!important}.wp-block-tab:focus,.wp-block-tab:hover{text-decoration:none}.wp-block-tab:focus-visible{outline:auto;outline-offset:0}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/classic.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="coblocks-inline-format-inline-css">
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.uppercase{text-transform:uppercase}
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/*# sourceURL=coblocks-inline-format-inline-css */
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</style>
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<link crossorigin='anonymous' rel='stylesheet' id='all-css-12-1' href='/_static/??-eJx9jEEOAiEQBD/kQECjeDC+ZWEnijIwYWA3/l72op689KFTVXplCCU3zE1z6reYRYfiUwlP0VYZpwxIJE4IFRd10HOU9iFA2iuhCiI7/ROiDt9WxfETT20jCOc4YUIa2D9t5eGA91xRBMZS7ATtPkTZvCtdzNEZt7f2fHq8Afl7R7w=&cssminify=yes' type='text/css' media='all' />
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<style id="global-styles-inline-css">
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<p class="site-title"><a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/" rel="home">Surfing Complexity</a></p>
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<p class="site-description">Lorin Hochstein's ramblings about software, complex systems, and incidents.</p>
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<article id="post-2725" class="post-2725 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-cognitive-systems-engineering category-engineering category-software category-systems">
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<header class="entry-header">
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<h1 class="entry-title">There is no “Three Mile Island” event coming for software</h1> </header><!-- .entry-header --> <div class="entry-meta">
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<span class="byline">
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/author/lorinh/" rel="author">Lorin Hochstein</a> </span>
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<span class="cat-links">
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/category/cognitive-systems-engineering/" rel="category tag">cognitive-systems-engineering</a>, <a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/category/engineering/" rel="category tag">engineering</a>, <a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/category/software/" rel="category tag">software</a>, <a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/category/systems/" rel="category tag">systems</a> </span><!-- .cat-links -->
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<span class="published-on">
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<time class="entry-date published updated" datetime="2022-10-08T12:51:28-07:00">October 8, 2022</time> </span>
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<span class="word-count">2 Minutes</span> </div><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<div class="entry-content">
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-031-07805-7_4">Critical Digital Services: An Under-Studied Safety-Critical Domain</a>, John Allspaw asks: </p>
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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Critical digital services has yet to experience its “Three-Mile Island” event. Is<br>such an accident necessary for the domain to take human performance seriously? Or can it translate what other domains have learned and make productive use of<br>those lessons to inform how work is done and risk is anticipated for the future?</p>
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</blockquote>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I don’t think the software world will ever experience such an event.</p>
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The effect of TMI</h2>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident">Three Mile Island accident</a> (TMI) is notable, not because of the immediate impact on human lives, but because of the profound effect it had on the field of safety science.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Before TMI, the prevailing theories of accidents was that they were because of issues like mechanical failures (e.g., bridge collapse, boiler explosion), unsafe operator practices, and mixing up physical controls (e.g., switch that lowers the landing gear looks similar to switch that lowers the flaps).</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But TMI was different. It’s not that the operators were doing the wrong things, but rather that they did the right things based on their understanding of what was happening, but their understanding of what was happening, which was based on the information that they were getting from their instruments, didn’t match reality. As a result, the actions that they took contributed to the incident, even though they did what they were supposed to do. (For more on this, I recommend watching Richard Cook’s excellent lecture: <a href="https://vimeo.com/showcase/6184024/video/85909644">It all started at TMI, 1979</a>).</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">TMI led to a kind of Cambrian explosion of research into human error and its role in accidents. This is the beginning of the era where you see work from researchers such as Charles Perrow, Jens Rasmussen, James Reason, Don Norman, David Woods, and Erik Hollnagel. </p>
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why there won’t be a software TMI</h2>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">TMI was significant because it was an event that could not be explained using existing theories. I don’t think any such event will happen in a software system, because I think that <strong><em>every complex software system failure can be “explained”, even if the resulting explanation is lousy.</em></strong> No matter what the software failure looks like, someone will always be able to identify a “root cause”, and propose a solution (more automation, better procedures). I don’t think a complex software failure is capable of creating TMI style cognitive dissonance in our industry: we’re, unfortunately, too good at explaining away failures without making any changes to our priors.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We’ll continue to have <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therac-25">Therac-25s</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knight_Capital_Group">Knight Capitals</a>, <a href="/2014/09/30/cloud-software-fragility-and-air-france-447/">Air France 447s</a>, <a href="https://bookshop.org/books/flying-blind-the-737-max-tragedy-and-the-fall-of-boeing-9780593460177/9780385546492">737 Maxs</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2014/10/3/6414949/911-call-failures-fcc">911 outages</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/rogers-communications-services-down-thousands-users-downdetector-2022-07-08/">Rogers outages</a>, and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/7/27/23280461/tesla-autopilot-crash-motorcyclist-fatal-utah-nhtsa">Tesla autopilot deaths</a>. Some of them will cause enormous loss of human life, and will result in legislative responses. But no such accident will compel the software industry to, as Allspaw puts it, take human performance seriously.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Our only hope is that the software industry eventually learns the lessons that the safety science learned from the original TMI. </p>
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Published by <span class="author-name">Lorin Hochstein</span> </h2>
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Pingback: <a href="https://sreweekly.com/sre-weekly-issue-342/" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">SRE Weekly Issue #342 – SRE WEEKLY</a> </div>
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<img referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt='john doe's avatar' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8499b40be90b341208f7417628be2e4dc9739568baa085948bf4aeeda46d3b17?s=48&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8499b40be90b341208f7417628be2e4dc9739568baa085948bf4aeeda46d3b17?s=48&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8499b40be90b341208f7417628be2e4dc9739568baa085948bf4aeeda46d3b17?s=72&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8499b40be90b341208f7417628be2e4dc9739568baa085948bf4aeeda46d3b17?s=96&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8499b40be90b341208f7417628be2e4dc9739568baa085948bf4aeeda46d3b17?s=144&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/8499b40be90b341208f7417628be2e4dc9739568baa085948bf4aeeda46d3b17?s=192&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-48' height='48' width='48' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">john doe</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div><!-- .comment-author -->
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2022/10/08/there-is-no-three-mile-island-event-coming-for-software/#comment-6421"><time datetime="2022-10-21T12:23:32-07:00">October 21, 2022 at 12:23 pm</time></a> </div><!-- .comment-metadata -->
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<p>Never say never</p>
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