952 lines
94 KiB
HTML
952 lines
94 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="en">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
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<link rel="profile" href="http://gmpg.org/xfn/11">
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<title>A small mistake does not a complex systems failure make – Surfing Complexity</title>
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<meta name='robots' content='max-image-preview:large' />
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<!-- Async WordPress.com Remote Login -->
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<script id="wpcom_remote_login_js">
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var wpcom_remote_login_extra_auth = '';
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function wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( element_id ) {
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var dom_node = document.getElementById( element_id );
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if ( dom_node ) { dom_node.parentNode.removeChild( dom_node ); }
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}
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function wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_classes( class_name ) {
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var dom_nodes = document.querySelectorAll( '.' + class_name );
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for ( var i = 0; i < dom_nodes.length; i++ ) {
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dom_nodes[ i ].parentNode.removeChild( dom_nodes[ i ] );
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}
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}
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function wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup() {
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_classes( "wpcom_remote_login_msg" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_validate" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_js" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_request_access_iframe" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_request_access_styles" );
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}
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// Watch for messages back from the remote login
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window.addEventListener( "message", function( e ) {
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if ( e.origin === "https://r-login.wordpress.com" ) {
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var data = {};
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try {
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data = JSON.parse( e.data );
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} catch( e ) {
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wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup();
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return;
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}
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN' ) {
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// Clean up the login check iframe
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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var id_regex = new RegExp( /^[0-9]+$/ );
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var token_regex = new RegExp( /^.*|.*|.*$/ );
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if (
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token_regex.test( data.token )
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&& id_regex.test( data.wpcomid )
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) {
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// We have everything we need to ask for a login
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var script = document.createElement( "script" );
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script.setAttribute( "id", "wpcom_remote_login_validate" );
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script.src = '/remote-login.php?wpcom_remote_login=validate'
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+ '&wpcomid=' + data.wpcomid
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+ '&token=' + encodeURIComponent( data.token )
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+ '&host=' + window.location.protocol
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+ '//' + window.location.hostname
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+ '&postid=2956'
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+ '&is_singular=1';
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document.body.appendChild( script );
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}
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP, not logged in, so redirect
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN-REDIRECT' ) {
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window.location = 'https://wordpress.com/log-in?redirect_to=' + window.location.href;
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP, storage access failed, remove the request
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN-REMOVE' ) {
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var css_zap = 'html { -webkit-transition: margin-top 1s; transition: margin-top 1s; } /* 9001 */ html { margin-top: 0 !important; } * html body { margin-top: 0 !important; } @media screen and ( max-width: 782px ) { html { margin-top: 0 !important; } * html body { margin-top: 0 !important; } }';
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var style_zap = document.createElement( 'style' );
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style_zap.type = 'text/css';
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style_zap.appendChild( document.createTextNode( css_zap ) );
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document.body.appendChild( style_zap );
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var e = document.getElementById( 'wpcom_request_access_iframe' );
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e.parentNode.removeChild( e );
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document.cookie = 'wordpress_com_login_access=denied; path=/; max-age=31536000';
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP
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if ( data.msg === 'REQUEST_ACCESS' ) {
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console.log( 'request access: safari' );
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// Check ITP iframe enable/disable knob
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if ( wpcom_remote_login_extra_auth !== 'safari_itp_iframe' ) {
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return;
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}
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// If we are in a "private window" there is no ITP.
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var private_window = false;
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try {
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var opendb = window.openDatabase( null, null, null, null );
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} catch( e ) {
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private_window = true;
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}
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if ( private_window ) {
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console.log( 'private window' );
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return;
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}
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var iframe = document.createElement( 'iframe' );
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iframe.id = 'wpcom_request_access_iframe';
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iframe.setAttribute( 'scrolling', 'no' );
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iframe.setAttribute( 'sandbox', 'allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation' );
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iframe.src = 'https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php?wpcom_remote_login=request_access&origin=' + encodeURIComponent( data.origin ) + '&wpcomid=' + encodeURIComponent( data.wpcomid );
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var css = 'html { -webkit-transition: margin-top 1s; transition: margin-top 1s; } /* 9001 */ html { margin-top: 46px !important; } * html body { margin-top: 46px !important; } @media screen and ( max-width: 660px ) { html { margin-top: 71px !important; } * html body { margin-top: 71px !important; } #wpcom_request_access_iframe { display: block; height: 71px !important; } } #wpcom_request_access_iframe { border: 0px; height: 46px; position: fixed; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; min-width: 100%; z-index: 99999; background: #23282d; } ';
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var style = document.createElement( 'style' );
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style.type = 'text/css';
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style.id = 'wpcom_request_access_styles';
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style.appendChild( document.createTextNode( css ) );
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document.body.appendChild( style );
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document.body.appendChild( iframe );
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}
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if ( data.msg === 'DONE' ) {
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wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup();
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}
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}
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}, false );
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// Inject the remote login iframe after the page has had a chance to load
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// more critical resources
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window.addEventListener( "DOMContentLoaded", function( e ) {
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var iframe = document.createElement( "iframe" );
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iframe.style.display = "none";
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iframe.setAttribute( "scrolling", "no" );
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iframe.setAttribute( "id", "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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iframe.src = "https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php"
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+ "?wpcom_remote_login=key"
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+ "&origin=aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXJmaW5nY29tcGxleGl0eS5ibG9n"
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+ "&wpcomid=30291541"
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+ "&time=" + Math.floor( Date.now() / 1000 );
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document.body.appendChild( iframe );
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}, false );
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</script>
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s2.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//widgets.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s1.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s0.wp.com' />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/feed/" />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » Comments Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/comments/feed/" />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » A small mistake does not a complex systems failure make Comments Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2023/01/15/a-small-mistake-does-not-a-complex-systems-failure-make/feed/" />
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<script type="text/javascript">
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/* <![CDATA[ */
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function addLoadEvent(func) {
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var oldonload = window.onload;
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if (typeof window.onload != 'function') {
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window.onload = func;
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} else {
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window.onload = function () {
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oldonload();
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func();
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}
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}
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}
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/* ]]> */
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</script>
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<style id="wp-img-auto-sizes-contain-inline-css">
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img:is([sizes=auto i],[sizes^="auto," i]){contain-intrinsic-size:3000px 1500px}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-img-auto-sizes-contain-inline-css */
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</style>
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<link crossorigin='anonymous' rel='stylesheet' id='all-css-2-1' href='/_static/??-eJxtjEsKgDAMBS9kjbqwuBDPUtog9o9J8fpaEQSRBw8GhoEjC50iY2QIRWRf1i0SWOSstHsYQkr1TPFIsKNXjEbkRPyhVhM18J/0m8M3fFPVlzD3UnbTtWG0J2CTNNk=&cssminify=yes' type='text/css' media='all' />
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<style id="wp-emoji-styles-inline-css">
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img.wp-smiley, img.emoji {
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display: inline !important;
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border: none !important;
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box-shadow: none !important;
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height: 1em !important;
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width: 1em !important;
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margin: 0 0.07em !important;
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vertical-align: -0.1em !important;
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background: none !important;
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padding: 0 !important;
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}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-emoji-styles-inline-css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-library-inline-css">
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:root{--wp-block-synced-color:#7a00df;--wp-block-synced-color--rgb:122,0,223;--wp-bound-block-color:var(--wp-block-synced-color);--wp-editor-canvas-background:#ddd;--wp-admin-theme-color:#007cba;--wp-admin-theme-color--rgb:0,124,186;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-10:#006ba1;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-10--rgb:0,107,160.5;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-20:#005a87;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-20--rgb:0,90,135;--wp-admin-border-width-focus:2px}@media (min-resolution:192dpi){:root{--wp-admin-border-width-focus:1.5px}}.wp-element-button{cursor:pointer}:root .has-very-light-gray-background-color{background-color:#eee}:root .has-very-dark-gray-background-color{background-color:#313131}:root .has-very-light-gray-color{color:#eee}:root .has-very-dark-gray-color{color:#313131}:root .has-vivid-green-cyan-to-vivid-cyan-blue-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#00d084,#0693e3)}:root .has-purple-crush-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#34e2e4,#4721fb 50%,#ab1dfe)}:root .has-hazy-dawn-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#faaca8,#dad0ec)}:root .has-subdued-olive-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#fafae1,#67a671)}:root .has-atomic-cream-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#fdd79a,#004a59)}:root .has-nightshade-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#330968,#31cdcf)}:root .has-midnight-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#020381,#2874fc)}:root{--wp--preset--font-size--normal:16px;--wp--preset--font-size--huge:42px}.has-regular-font-size{font-size:1em}.has-larger-font-size{font-size:2.625em}.has-normal-font-size{font-size:var(--wp--preset--font-size--normal)}.has-huge-font-size{font-size:var(--wp--preset--font-size--huge)}:root .has-text-align-center{text-align:center}:root .has-text-align-left{text-align:left}:root .has-text-align-right{text-align:right}.has-fit-text{white-space:nowrap!important}#end-resizable-editor-section{display:none}.aligncenter{clear:both}.items-justified-left{justify-content:flex-start}.items-justified-center{justify-content:center}.items-justified-right{justify-content:flex-end}.items-justified-space-between{justify-content:space-between}.screen-reader-text{word-wrap:normal!important;border:0;clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;word-break:normal!important}.screen-reader-text:focus{background-color:#ddd;clip-path:none;color:#444;display:block;font-size:1em;height:auto;left:5px;line-height:normal;padding:15px 23px 14px;text-decoration:none;top:5px;width:auto;z-index:100000}html :where(.has-border-color){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-color],[style*=";border-color"],[style*="; border-color"]){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-top-color],[style*=";border-top-color"],[style*="; border-top-color"]){border-top-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-right-color],[style*=";border-right-color"],[style*="; border-right-color"]){border-right-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-bottom-color],[style*=";border-bottom-color"],[style*="; border-bottom-color"]){border-bottom-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-left-color],[style*=";border-left-color"],[style*="; border-left-color"]){border-left-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-width],[style*=";border-width"],[style*="; border-width"]){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-top-width],[style*=";border-top-width"],[style*="; border-top-width"]){border-top-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-right-width],[style*=";border-right-width"],[style*="; border-right-width"]){border-right-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-bottom-width],[style*=";border-bottom-width"],[style*="; border-bottom-width"]){border-bottom-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-left-width],[style*=";border-left-width"],[style*="; border-left-width"]){border-left-style:solid}html :where(img[class*=wp-image-]){height:auto;max-width:100%}:where(figure){margin:0 0 1em}html :where(.is-position-sticky){--wp-admin--admin-bar--position-offset:var(--wp-admin--admin-bar--height,0px)}@media screen and (max-width:600px){html :where(.is-position-sticky){--wp-admin--admin-bar--position-offset:0px}}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/common.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-embed-inline-css">
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.wp-block-embed.alignleft,.wp-block-embed.alignright,.wp-block[data-align=left]>[data-type="core/embed"],.wp-block[data-align=right]>[data-type="core/embed"]{max-width:360px;width:100%}.wp-block-embed.alignleft .wp-block-embed__wrapper,.wp-block-embed.alignright .wp-block-embed__wrapper,.wp-block[data-align=left]>[data-type="core/embed"] .wp-block-embed__wrapper,.wp-block[data-align=right]>[data-type="core/embed"] .wp-block-embed__wrapper{min-width:280px}.wp-block-cover .wp-block-embed{min-height:240px;min-width:320px}.wp-block-group.is-layout-flex .wp-block-embed{flex:1 1 0%;min-width:0}.wp-block-embed{overflow-wrap:break-word}.wp-block-embed :where(figcaption){margin-bottom:1em;margin-top:.5em}.wp-block-embed iframe{max-width:100%}.wp-block-embed__wrapper{position:relative}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-has-aspect-ratio .wp-block-embed__wrapper:before{content:"";display:block;padding-top:50%}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-has-aspect-ratio iframe{bottom:0;height:100%;left:0;position:absolute;right:0;top:0;width:100%}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-embed-aspect-21-9 .wp-block-embed__wrapper:before{padding-top:42.85%}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-embed-aspect-18-9 .wp-block-embed__wrapper:before{padding-top:50%}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-embed-aspect-16-9 .wp-block-embed__wrapper:before{padding-top:56.25%}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-embed-aspect-4-3 .wp-block-embed__wrapper:before{padding-top:75%}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-embed-aspect-1-1 .wp-block-embed__wrapper:before{padding-top:100%}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-embed-aspect-9-16 .wp-block-embed__wrapper:before{padding-top:177.77%}.wp-embed-responsive .wp-embed-aspect-1-2 .wp-block-embed__wrapper:before{padding-top:200%}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/embed/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-embed-theme-inline-css">
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.wp-block-embed :where(figcaption){color:#555;font-size:13px;text-align:center}.is-dark-theme .wp-block-embed :where(figcaption){color:hsla(0,0%,100%,.65)}.wp-block-embed{margin:0 0 1em}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/embed/theme.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-quote-inline-css">
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.wp-block-quote{box-sizing:border-box;overflow-wrap:break-word}.wp-block-quote.is-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)),.wp-block-quote.is-style-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)){margin-bottom:1em;padding:0 1em}.wp-block-quote.is-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) p,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) p{font-size:1.5em;font-style:italic;line-height:1.6}.wp-block-quote.is-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) cite,.wp-block-quote.is-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) footer,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) cite,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large:where(:not(.is-style-plain)) footer{font-size:1.125em;text-align:right}.wp-block-quote>cite{display:block}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/quote/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-quote-theme-inline-css">
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.wp-block-quote{border-left:.25em solid;margin:0 0 1.75em;padding-left:1em}.wp-block-quote cite,.wp-block-quote footer{color:currentColor;font-size:.8125em;font-style:normal;position:relative}.wp-block-quote:where(.has-text-align-right){border-left:none;border-right:.25em solid;padding-left:0;padding-right:1em}.wp-block-quote:where(.has-text-align-center){border:none;padding-left:0}.wp-block-quote.is-large,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large,.wp-block-quote:where(.is-style-plain){border:none}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/quote/theme.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-latest-posts-inline-css">
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.wp-block-latest-posts{box-sizing:border-box}.wp-block-latest-posts.alignleft{margin-right:2em}.wp-block-latest-posts.alignright{margin-left:2em}.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list{list-style:none}.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list li{clear:both;overflow-wrap:break-word}.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid:not(.is-layout-grid){display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap}.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid:not(.is-layout-grid) li{margin:0 1.25em 1.25em 0;width:100%}@media (min-width:600px){.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-2:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(50% - .625em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-2:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(2n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-3:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(33.33333% - .83333em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-3:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-4:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(25% - .9375em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-4:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(4n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-5:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(20% - 1em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-5:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(5n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-6:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(16.66667% - 1.04167em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-6:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(6n){margin-right:0}}@media (max-width:600px){.wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-grid[class*=columns-]:not(.has-native-responsive-grid){grid-template-columns:1fr}}:root :where(.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid){padding:0}:root :where(.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list){padding-left:0}.wp-block-latest-posts__post-author,.wp-block-latest-posts__post-date{display:block;font-size:.8125em}.wp-block-latest-posts__post-excerpt,.wp-block-latest-posts__post-full-content{margin-bottom:1em;margin-top:.5em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image a{display:inline-block}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image img{height:auto;max-width:100%;width:auto}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.alignleft{float:left;margin-right:1em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.alignright{float:right;margin-left:1em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.aligncenter{margin-bottom:1em;text-align:center}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/latest-posts/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-list-inline-css">
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ol,ul{box-sizing:border-box}:root :where(.wp-block-list.has-background){padding:1.25em 2.375em}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/list/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-paragraph-inline-css">
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.is-small-text{font-size:.875em}.is-regular-text{font-size:1em}.is-large-text{font-size:2.25em}.is-larger-text{font-size:3em}.has-drop-cap:not(:focus):first-letter{float:left;font-size:8.4em;font-style:normal;font-weight:100;line-height:.68;margin:.05em .1em 0 0;text-transform:uppercase}body.rtl .has-drop-cap:not(:focus):first-letter{float:none;margin-left:.1em}p.has-drop-cap.has-background{overflow:hidden}:root :where(p.has-background){padding:1.25em 2.375em}:where(p.has-text-color:not(.has-link-color)) a{color:inherit}p.has-text-align-left[style*="writing-mode:vertical-lr"],p.has-text-align-right[style*="writing-mode:vertical-rl"]{rotate:180deg}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/paragraph/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-search-inline-css">
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.wp-block-search__button{margin-left:10px;word-break:normal}.wp-block-search__button.has-icon{line-height:0}.wp-block-search__button svg{fill:currentColor;height:1.25em;min-height:24px;min-width:24px;vertical-align:text-bottom;width:1.25em}:where(.wp-block-search__button){border:1px solid #ccc;padding:6px 10px}.wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{display:flex;flex:auto;flex-wrap:nowrap;max-width:100%}:where(.wp-block-search__label){width:100%}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__button{box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-shrink:0;justify-content:center;margin-left:0;max-width:100%}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{min-width:0!important;transition-property:width}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__input{flex-basis:100%;transition-duration:.3s}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden,.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{overflow:hidden}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden .wp-block-search__input{border-left-width:0!important;border-right-width:0!important;flex-basis:0;flex-grow:0;margin:0;min-width:0!important;padding-left:0!important;padding-right:0!important;width:0!important}:where(.wp-block-search__input){-webkit-appearance:initial;-moz-appearance:initial;appearance:none;border:1px solid #949494;flex-grow:1;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;letter-spacing:inherit;line-height:inherit;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;min-width:3rem;padding:8px;text-decoration:unset!important;text-transform:inherit}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper){background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #949494;box-sizing:border-box;padding:4px}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) .wp-block-search__input{border:none;border-radius:0;padding:0 4px}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) .wp-block-search__input:focus{outline:none}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) :where(.wp-block-search__button){padding:4px 8px}.wp-block-search.aligncenter .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{margin:auto}.wp-block[data-align=right] .wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{float:right}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/search/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-search-theme-inline-css">
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:where(.wp-block-search .wp-block-search__label){font-weight:700}.wp-block-search__button{border:1px solid #ccc;padding:.375em .625em}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/search/theme.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-library-inline-css-extra">
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.has-text-align-justify {
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text-align:justify;
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}
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.has-text-align-justify{text-align:justify;}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-block-library-inline-css */
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</style>
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<style id="classic-theme-styles-inline-css">
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.wp-block-button__link{background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;color:#fff;font-size:1.125em;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);text-decoration:none}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff}.wp-block-accordion-heading{margin:0}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle{background-color:inherit!important;color:inherit!important}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:not(:focus-visible){outline:none}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:focus,.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:hover{background-color:inherit!important;border:none;box-shadow:none;color:inherit;padding:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20,1em) 0;text-decoration:none}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:focus-visible{outline:auto;outline-offset:0}.wp-block-tab:not(.has-text-color){color:inherit!important}.wp-block-tab:not(.has-background){background-color:inherit!important}.wp-block-tab:focus,.wp-block-tab:hover{text-decoration:none}.wp-block-tab:focus-visible{outline:auto;outline-offset:0}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/classic.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="coblocks-inline-format-inline-css">
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.uppercase{text-transform:uppercase}
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/*# sourceURL=coblocks-inline-format-inline-css */
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</style>
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<link crossorigin='anonymous' rel='stylesheet' id='all-css-12-1' href='/_static/??-eJx9jEEOAiEQBD/kQECjeDC+ZWEnijIwYWA3/l72op689KFTVXplCCU3zE1z6reYRYfiUwlP0VYZpwxIJE4IFRd10HOU9iFA2iuhCiI7/ROiDt9WxfETT20jCOc4YUIa2D9t5eGA91xRBMZS7ATtPkTZvCtdzNEZt7f2fHq8Afl7R7w=&cssminify=yes' type='text/css' media='all' />
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<style id="global-styles-inline-css">
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<article id="post-2956" class="post-2956 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-incidents category-systems">
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<h1 class="entry-title">A small mistake does not a complex systems failure make</h1> </header><!-- .entry-header --> <div class="entry-meta">
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/author/lorinh/" rel="author">Lorin Hochstein</a> </span>
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/category/systems/incidents/" rel="category tag">incidents</a>, <a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/category/systems/" rel="category tag">systems</a> </span><!-- .cat-links -->
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<time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-01-15T14:22:59-08:00">January 15, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-01-15T14:25:06-08:00">January 15, 2023</time> </span>
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<span class="word-count">1 Minute</span> </div><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<div class="entry-content">
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I’ve been trying to take a break from Twitter lately, but today I popped back in, only to be trolled by a <a href="https://www.bmt-online.org/">colleague of mine</a>:</p>
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<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
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<div class="embed-twitter"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/norootcause?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@norootcause</a>, it looks like “they found the root cause” of that FAA outage 😜 <a href="https://t.co/dBQzaVnGPk">https://t.co/dBQzaVnGPk</a></p>— Bertrand MT (@bertrandmt) <a href="https://twitter.com/bertrandmt/status/1614651889714618370?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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</div></figure>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Here’s a <a href="https://www.rawstory.com/faa-outage-cause/">quote from the story</a>:</p>
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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The source of the problem was reportedly a single engineer who made a small mistake with a file transfer.</p>
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</blockquote>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Here’s what I’d like you to ponder, dear reader. Think about all of the small mistakes that happen every single day, at every workplace, on the face of the planet. If a small mistake was sufficient to take down a complex system, then <strong><em>our</em> <em>systems would be crashing all of the time.</em></strong> And, yet, that clearly isn’t the case. For example, before this event, when was the last time the FAA suffered a catastrophic outage? </p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Now, it might be the case that no FAA employees have ever made a small mistake until now. Or, more likely, the FAA system works in such a way that small mistakes are not typically sufficient for taking down the entire system. </p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To understand this failure mode, you need to understand how it is that the FAA system is able to stay up and running on a day-to-day basis, despite the system being populated by fallible human beings who are capable of making small mistakes. You need to understand <strong><em>how the system actually works</em></strong> in order to make sense of how a large-scale failure can happen.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Now, I’ve never worked in the aviation industry, and consequently I don’t have domain knowledge about the FAA system. But I can tell you one thing: <strong><em>a small mistake with a file transfer</em></strong> is a hopelessly incomplete explanation for how the FAA system actually failed.</p>
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Published by <span class="author-name">Lorin Hochstein</span> </h2>
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<strong>Published</strong>
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<time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-01-15T14:22:59-08:00">January 15, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-01-15T14:25:06-08:00">January 15, 2023</time> </div><!-- .site-posted-on -->
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2 thoughts on “<span>A small mistake does not a complex systems failure make</span>” </h2><!-- .comments-title -->
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<img referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt='Ciaran's avatar' src='https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/774f3fb57f4f9a2eb69ac36f477d4385738a9b12c0e169958bcdb8f573278153?s=48&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/774f3fb57f4f9a2eb69ac36f477d4385738a9b12c0e169958bcdb8f573278153?s=48&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/774f3fb57f4f9a2eb69ac36f477d4385738a9b12c0e169958bcdb8f573278153?s=72&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/774f3fb57f4f9a2eb69ac36f477d4385738a9b12c0e169958bcdb8f573278153?s=96&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/774f3fb57f4f9a2eb69ac36f477d4385738a9b12c0e169958bcdb8f573278153?s=144&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/774f3fb57f4f9a2eb69ac36f477d4385738a9b12c0e169958bcdb8f573278153?s=192&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-48' height='48' width='48' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn"><a href="https://ciaran.dev" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">Ciaran</a></b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div><!-- .comment-author -->
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2023/01/15/a-small-mistake-does-not-a-complex-systems-failure-make/#comment-7383"><time datetime="2023-01-15T14:47:36-08:00">January 15, 2023 at 2:47 pm</time></a> </div><!-- .comment-metadata -->
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<p>Looks like “make” in the title of the post is in the wrong place.</p>
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<p>Other than that it reminds me of what a senior engineer constantly told me.</p>
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<p>“You’d be amazed how much things work when they are just left alone.”</p>
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<p>I’d be more interested in WHY an engineer is transferring files in the first place. That is where the problem lies.</p>
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_stq.push([ 'clickTrackerInit', '30291541', '2956' ]);
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<noscript><img src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?v=noscript" style="height:1px;width:1px;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;bottom:1px;" alt="" /></noscript>
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<meta id="bilmur" property="bilmur:data" content="" data-provider="wordpress.com" data-service="simple" data-site-tz="America/Los_Angeles" data-custom-props="{"logged_in":"0","wptheme":"pub\/independent-publisher-2","wptheme_is_block":"0"}" >
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<script defer src="/wp-content/js/bilmur.min.js?i=17&m=202637"></script>
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<script>
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(function() {
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'use strict';
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const fetches = {};
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const promises = {};
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const urls = {
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'wp-polyfill': '/wp-includes/js/dist/vendor/wp-polyfill.min.js?m=1786440387i&ver=3.15.0',
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'verbum': '/wp-content/mu-plugins/jetpack-mu-wpcom-plugin/moon/jetpack_vendor/automattic/jetpack-mu-wpcom/src/build/verbum-comments/verbum-comments.js?m=1788898305i&minify=false&ver=3d6130a57c3104d5bc3b'
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};
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const loaders = {
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'verbum': () => {
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fetchExternalScript('wp-polyfill');
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fetchExternalScript('verbum');
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promises['wp-polyfill'] = promises['wp-polyfill'] || loadWPScript('wp-polyfill');
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promises['verbum'] = promises['verbum'] || promises['wp-polyfill'].then( () => loadWPScript('verbum') );
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return promises['verbum'];
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},
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};
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const scriptExtras = {
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};
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window.WP_Enqueue_Dynamic_Script = {
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loadScript: (handle) => {
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if (!loaders[handle]) {
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console.error('WP_Enqueue_Dynamic_Script: unregistered script `' + handle + '`.');
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return loaders[handle]();
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};
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function fetchExternalScript(handle) {
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if (!urls[handle]) {
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fetches[handle] = fetches[handle] || fetch(urls[handle], { mode: 'no-cors' });
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return fetches[handle];
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}
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function runExtraScript(handle, type, index) {
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const id = 'wp-enqueue-dynamic-script:' + handle + ':' + type + ':' + (index + 1);
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return Promise.reject();
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}
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const script = document.createElement( 'script' );
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script.innerHTML = template.innerHTML;
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document.body.appendChild( script );
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return Promise.resolve();
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}
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function loadExternalScript(handle) {
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return fetches[handle].then(() => {
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return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
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const script = document.createElement('script');
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script.onload = () => resolve();
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script.onerror = (e) => reject(e);
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script.src = urls[handle];
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document.body.appendChild(script);
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});
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});
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}
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function loadExtra(handle, pos) {
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const count = (scriptExtras[handle] && scriptExtras[handle][pos]) || 0;
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let promise = Promise.resolve();
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for (let i = 0; i < count; i++) {
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promise = promise.then(() => runExtraScript(handle, pos, i));
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}
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return promise;
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function loadWPScript(handle) {
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// Core loads scripts in this order. See: https://github.com/WordPress/WordPress/blob/a59eb9d39c4fcba834b70c9e8dfd64feeec10ba6/wp-includes/class-wp-scripts.php#L428.
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return loadExtra(handle, 'translations')
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</body>
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