nexus/wiki/concepts/Marketing-Attribution.md

title, type, tags, sources, last_updated

title	type	tags	sources	last_updated
Marketing Attribution	concept		support-analytics-reporter	2026-04-21

Aliases

• 营销归因模型
• Multi-Touch Attribution（多触点归因）
• Attribution Modeling

Definition

Marketing Attribution（营销归因）是一种数据分析方法，用于将客户的转化收入或转化行为按照用户旅程中各触点（渠道/广告位/活动）的贡献权重进行分配，从而量化不同营销渠道的真实价值，指导预算优化和 ROI 最大化。

Attribution Models

1. Single-Touch（单触点归因）

模型	归因逻辑	优点	缺点
First Touch	100% 归因给首个触点	识别获客渠道	忽视转化路径上的其他渠道
Last Touch	100% 归因给末触点	识别转化触点	忽视品牌建设类触点

2. Multi-Touch（多触点归因）

模型	归因逻辑	适用场景
Linear	平均分配权重	各触点均等重要
Time Decay	越接近转化时间权重越高	短转化周期（B2C电商）
Position Based (U-Shaped)	首+末各 40%，中间均分剩余 20%	品牌+效果兼顾
Data-Driven	基于 Shapley 值或机器学习模型	有足够转化数据支撑

3. Algorithmic Attribution（算法归因）

基于 Shapley 值（博弈论）或 logistic 回归/马尔可夫链模型，从数据中自动学习各触点权重，是最精确但数据需求量最大的方案。

Multi-Touch Attribution Implementation

-- Multi-touch attribution with first/last/intermediate weights
WITH customer_touchpoints AS (
  SELECT 
    customer_id,
    channel,
    campaign,
    touchpoint_date,
    conversion_date,
    revenue,
    ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY customer_id ORDER BY touchpoint_date) as touch_sequence,
    COUNT(*) OVER (PARTITION BY customer_id) as total_touches
  FROM marketing_touchpoints mt
  JOIN conversions c ON mt.customer_id = c.customer_id
  WHERE touchpoint_date <= conversion_date
),
attribution_weights AS (
  SELECT *,
    CASE 
      WHEN touch_sequence = 1 AND total_touches = 1 THEN 1.0  -- Single touch
      WHEN touch_sequence = 1 THEN 0.4                          -- First touch
      WHEN touch_sequence = total_touches THEN 0.4             -- Last touch
      ELSE 0.2 / (total_touches - 2)                          -- Middle touches
    END as attribution_weight
  FROM customer_touchpoints
)
SELECT 
  channel,
  campaign,
  SUM(revenue * attribution_weight) as attributed_revenue,
  COUNT(DISTINCT customer_id) as attributed_conversions
FROM attribution_weights
GROUP BY channel, campaign
ORDER BY attributed_revenue DESC;

Campaign ROI Calculation

SELECT 
  campaign_name,
  SUM(spend) as total_spend,
  SUM(attributed_revenue) as total_revenue,
  (SUM(attributed_revenue) - SUM(spend)) / SUM(spend) * 100 as roi_percentage,
  SUM(attributed_revenue) / SUM(spend) as revenue_multiple,
  COUNT(conversions) as total_conversions,
  SUM(spend) / COUNT(conversions) as cost_per_conversion
FROM campaign_performance
GROUP BY campaign_name
ORDER BY roi_percentage DESC;

Key Metrics

指标	公式	业务含义
ROI	(归因收入 - 花费) / 花费 × 100%	渠道盈利性
ROAS	归因收入 / 广告花费	广告效率
CPA	总花费 / 归因转化数	获客成本
Revenue Multiple	归因收入 / 花费	收入倍数

Connections

• support-analytics-reporter — 使用多触点归因模型进行营销效果分析
• Marketing-ROI — 归因分析是 ROI 计算的基础
• Business-Intelligence — 属 BI 领域的营销分析子方向