990 lines
96 KiB
HTML
990 lines
96 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="en">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
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<link rel="profile" href="http://gmpg.org/xfn/11">
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<title>The problem with counterfactuals – Surfing Complexity</title>
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<meta name='robots' content='max-image-preview:large' />
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<!-- Async WordPress.com Remote Login -->
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<script id="wpcom_remote_login_js">
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var wpcom_remote_login_extra_auth = '';
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function wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( element_id ) {
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var dom_node = document.getElementById( element_id );
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if ( dom_node ) { dom_node.parentNode.removeChild( dom_node ); }
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}
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function wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_classes( class_name ) {
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var dom_nodes = document.querySelectorAll( '.' + class_name );
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for ( var i = 0; i < dom_nodes.length; i++ ) {
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dom_nodes[ i ].parentNode.removeChild( dom_nodes[ i ] );
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}
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}
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function wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup() {
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_classes( "wpcom_remote_login_msg" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_validate" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_js" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_request_access_iframe" );
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_request_access_styles" );
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}
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// Watch for messages back from the remote login
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window.addEventListener( "message", function( e ) {
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if ( e.origin === "https://r-login.wordpress.com" ) {
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var data = {};
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try {
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data = JSON.parse( e.data );
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} catch( e ) {
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wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup();
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return;
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}
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN' ) {
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// Clean up the login check iframe
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wpcom_remote_login_remove_dom_node_id( "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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var id_regex = new RegExp( /^[0-9]+$/ );
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var token_regex = new RegExp( /^.*|.*|.*$/ );
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if (
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token_regex.test( data.token )
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&& id_regex.test( data.wpcomid )
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) {
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// We have everything we need to ask for a login
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var script = document.createElement( "script" );
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script.setAttribute( "id", "wpcom_remote_login_validate" );
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script.src = '/remote-login.php?wpcom_remote_login=validate'
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+ '&wpcomid=' + data.wpcomid
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+ '&token=' + encodeURIComponent( data.token )
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+ '&host=' + window.location.protocol
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+ '//' + window.location.hostname
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+ '&postid=1036'
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+ '&is_singular=1';
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document.body.appendChild( script );
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}
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP, not logged in, so redirect
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN-REDIRECT' ) {
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window.location = 'https://wordpress.com/log-in?redirect_to=' + window.location.href;
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP, storage access failed, remove the request
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if ( data.msg === 'LOGIN-REMOVE' ) {
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var css_zap = 'html { -webkit-transition: margin-top 1s; transition: margin-top 1s; } /* 9001 */ html { margin-top: 0 !important; } * html body { margin-top: 0 !important; } @media screen and ( max-width: 782px ) { html { margin-top: 0 !important; } * html body { margin-top: 0 !important; } }';
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var style_zap = document.createElement( 'style' );
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style_zap.type = 'text/css';
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style_zap.appendChild( document.createTextNode( css_zap ) );
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document.body.appendChild( style_zap );
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var e = document.getElementById( 'wpcom_request_access_iframe' );
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e.parentNode.removeChild( e );
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document.cookie = 'wordpress_com_login_access=denied; path=/; max-age=31536000';
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return;
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}
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// Safari ITP
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if ( data.msg === 'REQUEST_ACCESS' ) {
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console.log( 'request access: safari' );
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// Check ITP iframe enable/disable knob
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if ( wpcom_remote_login_extra_auth !== 'safari_itp_iframe' ) {
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return;
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}
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// If we are in a "private window" there is no ITP.
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var private_window = false;
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try {
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var opendb = window.openDatabase( null, null, null, null );
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} catch( e ) {
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private_window = true;
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}
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if ( private_window ) {
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console.log( 'private window' );
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return;
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}
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var iframe = document.createElement( 'iframe' );
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iframe.id = 'wpcom_request_access_iframe';
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iframe.setAttribute( 'scrolling', 'no' );
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iframe.setAttribute( 'sandbox', 'allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation' );
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iframe.src = 'https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php?wpcom_remote_login=request_access&origin=' + encodeURIComponent( data.origin ) + '&wpcomid=' + encodeURIComponent( data.wpcomid );
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var css = 'html { -webkit-transition: margin-top 1s; transition: margin-top 1s; } /* 9001 */ html { margin-top: 46px !important; } * html body { margin-top: 46px !important; } @media screen and ( max-width: 660px ) { html { margin-top: 71px !important; } * html body { margin-top: 71px !important; } #wpcom_request_access_iframe { display: block; height: 71px !important; } } #wpcom_request_access_iframe { border: 0px; height: 46px; position: fixed; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; min-width: 100%; z-index: 99999; background: #23282d; } ';
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var style = document.createElement( 'style' );
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style.type = 'text/css';
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style.id = 'wpcom_request_access_styles';
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style.appendChild( document.createTextNode( css ) );
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document.body.appendChild( style );
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document.body.appendChild( iframe );
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}
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if ( data.msg === 'DONE' ) {
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wpcom_remote_login_final_cleanup();
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}
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}
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}, false );
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// Inject the remote login iframe after the page has had a chance to load
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// more critical resources
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window.addEventListener( "DOMContentLoaded", function( e ) {
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var iframe = document.createElement( "iframe" );
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iframe.style.display = "none";
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iframe.setAttribute( "scrolling", "no" );
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iframe.setAttribute( "id", "wpcom_remote_login_key" );
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iframe.src = "https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php"
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+ "?wpcom_remote_login=key"
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+ "&origin=aHR0cHM6Ly9zdXJmaW5nY29tcGxleGl0eS5ibG9n"
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+ "&wpcomid=30291541"
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+ "&time=" + Math.floor( Date.now() / 1000 );
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document.body.appendChild( iframe );
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}, false );
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</script>
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s2.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//widgets.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s1.wp.com' />
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<link rel='dns-prefetch' href='//s0.wp.com' />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/feed/" />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » Comments Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/comments/feed/" />
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Surfing Complexity » The problem with counterfactuals Comments Feed" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2019/08/22/the-problem-with-counterfactuals/feed/" />
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<script type="text/javascript">
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/* <![CDATA[ */
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function addLoadEvent(func) {
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var oldonload = window.onload;
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if (typeof window.onload != 'function') {
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window.onload = func;
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} else {
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window.onload = function () {
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oldonload();
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func();
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}
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}
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}
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/* ]]> */
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</script>
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<style id="wp-img-auto-sizes-contain-inline-css">
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img:is([sizes=auto i],[sizes^="auto," i]){contain-intrinsic-size:3000px 1500px}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-img-auto-sizes-contain-inline-css */
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</style>
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<link crossorigin='anonymous' rel='stylesheet' id='all-css-2-1' href='/_static/??-eJxtjEsKgDAMBS9kjbqwuBDPUtog9o9J8fpaEQSRBw8GhoEjC50iY2QIRWRf1i0SWOSstHsYQkr1TPFIsKNXjEbkRPyhVhM18J/0m8M3fFPVlzD3UnbTtWG0J2CTNNk=&cssminify=yes' type='text/css' media='all' />
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<style id="wp-emoji-styles-inline-css">
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img.wp-smiley, img.emoji {
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display: inline !important;
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border: none !important;
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box-shadow: none !important;
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height: 1em !important;
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width: 1em !important;
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margin: 0 0.07em !important;
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vertical-align: -0.1em !important;
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background: none !important;
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padding: 0 !important;
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}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-emoji-styles-inline-css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-library-inline-css">
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:root{--wp-block-synced-color:#7a00df;--wp-block-synced-color--rgb:122,0,223;--wp-bound-block-color:var(--wp-block-synced-color);--wp-editor-canvas-background:#ddd;--wp-admin-theme-color:#007cba;--wp-admin-theme-color--rgb:0,124,186;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-10:#006ba1;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-10--rgb:0,107,160.5;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-20:#005a87;--wp-admin-theme-color-darker-20--rgb:0,90,135;--wp-admin-border-width-focus:2px}@media (min-resolution:192dpi){:root{--wp-admin-border-width-focus:1.5px}}.wp-element-button{cursor:pointer}:root .has-very-light-gray-background-color{background-color:#eee}:root .has-very-dark-gray-background-color{background-color:#313131}:root .has-very-light-gray-color{color:#eee}:root .has-very-dark-gray-color{color:#313131}:root .has-vivid-green-cyan-to-vivid-cyan-blue-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#00d084,#0693e3)}:root .has-purple-crush-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#34e2e4,#4721fb 50%,#ab1dfe)}:root .has-hazy-dawn-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#faaca8,#dad0ec)}:root .has-subdued-olive-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#fafae1,#67a671)}:root .has-atomic-cream-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#fdd79a,#004a59)}:root .has-nightshade-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#330968,#31cdcf)}:root .has-midnight-gradient-background{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#020381,#2874fc)}:root{--wp--preset--font-size--normal:16px;--wp--preset--font-size--huge:42px}.has-regular-font-size{font-size:1em}.has-larger-font-size{font-size:2.625em}.has-normal-font-size{font-size:var(--wp--preset--font-size--normal)}.has-huge-font-size{font-size:var(--wp--preset--font-size--huge)}:root .has-text-align-center{text-align:center}:root .has-text-align-left{text-align:left}:root .has-text-align-right{text-align:right}.has-fit-text{white-space:nowrap!important}#end-resizable-editor-section{display:none}.aligncenter{clear:both}.items-justified-left{justify-content:flex-start}.items-justified-center{justify-content:center}.items-justified-right{justify-content:flex-end}.items-justified-space-between{justify-content:space-between}.screen-reader-text{word-wrap:normal!important;border:0;clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;word-break:normal!important}.screen-reader-text:focus{background-color:#ddd;clip-path:none;color:#444;display:block;font-size:1em;height:auto;left:5px;line-height:normal;padding:15px 23px 14px;text-decoration:none;top:5px;width:auto;z-index:100000}html :where(.has-border-color){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-color],[style*=";border-color"],[style*="; border-color"]){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-top-color],[style*=";border-top-color"],[style*="; border-top-color"]){border-top-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-right-color],[style*=";border-right-color"],[style*="; border-right-color"]){border-right-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-bottom-color],[style*=";border-bottom-color"],[style*="; border-bottom-color"]){border-bottom-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-left-color],[style*=";border-left-color"],[style*="; border-left-color"]){border-left-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-width],[style*=";border-width"],[style*="; border-width"]){border-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-top-width],[style*=";border-top-width"],[style*="; border-top-width"]){border-top-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-right-width],[style*=";border-right-width"],[style*="; border-right-width"]){border-right-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-bottom-width],[style*=";border-bottom-width"],[style*="; border-bottom-width"]){border-bottom-style:solid}html :where([style^=border-left-width],[style*=";border-left-width"],[style*="; border-left-width"]){border-left-style:solid}html :where(img[class*=wp-image-]){height:auto;max-width:100%}:where(figure){margin:0 0 1em}html :where(.is-position-sticky){--wp-admin--admin-bar--position-offset:var(--wp-admin--admin-bar--height,0px)}@media screen and (max-width:600px){html :where(.is-position-sticky){--wp-admin--admin-bar--position-offset:0px}}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/common.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-latest-posts-inline-css">
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.wp-block-latest-posts{box-sizing:border-box}.wp-block-latest-posts.alignleft{margin-right:2em}.wp-block-latest-posts.alignright{margin-left:2em}.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list{list-style:none}.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list li{clear:both;overflow-wrap:break-word}.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid:not(.is-layout-grid){display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap}.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid:not(.is-layout-grid) li{margin:0 1.25em 1.25em 0;width:100%}@media (min-width:600px){.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-2:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(50% - .625em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-2:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(2n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-3:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(33.33333% - .83333em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-3:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-4:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(25% - .9375em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-4:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(4n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-5:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(20% - 1em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-5:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(5n){margin-right:0}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-6:not(.is-layout-grid) li{width:calc(16.66667% - 1.04167em)}.wp-block-latest-posts.columns-6:not(.is-layout-grid) li:nth-child(6n){margin-right:0}}@media (max-width:600px){.wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-grid[class*=columns-]:not(.has-native-responsive-grid){grid-template-columns:1fr}}:root :where(.wp-block-latest-posts.is-grid){padding:0}:root :where(.wp-block-latest-posts.wp-block-latest-posts__list){padding-left:0}.wp-block-latest-posts__post-author,.wp-block-latest-posts__post-date{display:block;font-size:.8125em}.wp-block-latest-posts__post-excerpt,.wp-block-latest-posts__post-full-content{margin-bottom:1em;margin-top:.5em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image a{display:inline-block}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image img{height:auto;max-width:100%;width:auto}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.alignleft{float:left;margin-right:1em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.alignright{float:right;margin-left:1em}.wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image.aligncenter{margin-bottom:1em;text-align:center}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/latest-posts/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-list-inline-css">
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ol,ul{box-sizing:border-box}:root :where(.wp-block-list.has-background){padding:1.25em 2.375em}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/list/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-paragraph-inline-css">
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.is-small-text{font-size:.875em}.is-regular-text{font-size:1em}.is-large-text{font-size:2.25em}.is-larger-text{font-size:3em}.has-drop-cap:not(:focus):first-letter{float:left;font-size:8.4em;font-style:normal;font-weight:100;line-height:.68;margin:.05em .1em 0 0;text-transform:uppercase}body.rtl .has-drop-cap:not(:focus):first-letter{float:none;margin-left:.1em}p.has-drop-cap.has-background{overflow:hidden}:root :where(p.has-background){padding:1.25em 2.375em}:where(p.has-text-color:not(.has-link-color)) a{color:inherit}p.has-text-align-left[style*="writing-mode:vertical-lr"],p.has-text-align-right[style*="writing-mode:vertical-rl"]{rotate:180deg}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/paragraph/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-search-inline-css">
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.wp-block-search__button{margin-left:10px;word-break:normal}.wp-block-search__button.has-icon{line-height:0}.wp-block-search__button svg{fill:currentColor;height:1.25em;min-height:24px;min-width:24px;vertical-align:text-bottom;width:1.25em}:where(.wp-block-search__button){border:1px solid #ccc;padding:6px 10px}.wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{display:flex;flex:auto;flex-wrap:nowrap;max-width:100%}:where(.wp-block-search__label){width:100%}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__button{box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-shrink:0;justify-content:center;margin-left:0;max-width:100%}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{min-width:0!important;transition-property:width}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__input{flex-basis:100%;transition-duration:.3s}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden,.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{overflow:hidden}.wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only.wp-block-search__searchfield-hidden .wp-block-search__input{border-left-width:0!important;border-right-width:0!important;flex-basis:0;flex-grow:0;margin:0;min-width:0!important;padding-left:0!important;padding-right:0!important;width:0!important}:where(.wp-block-search__input){-webkit-appearance:initial;-moz-appearance:initial;appearance:none;border:1px solid #949494;flex-grow:1;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;letter-spacing:inherit;line-height:inherit;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;min-width:3rem;padding:8px;text-decoration:unset!important;text-transform:inherit}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper){background-color:#fff;border:1px solid #949494;box-sizing:border-box;padding:4px}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) .wp-block-search__input{border:none;border-radius:0;padding:0 4px}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) .wp-block-search__input:focus{outline:none}:where(.wp-block-search__button-inside .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper) :where(.wp-block-search__button){padding:4px 8px}.wp-block-search.aligncenter .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{margin:auto}.wp-block[data-align=right] .wp-block-search.wp-block-search__button-only .wp-block-search__inside-wrapper{float:right}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/search/style.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-search-theme-inline-css">
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:where(.wp-block-search .wp-block-search__label){font-weight:700}.wp-block-search__button{border:1px solid #ccc;padding:.375em .625em}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/search/theme.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="wp-block-library-inline-css-extra">
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.has-text-align-justify {
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text-align:justify;
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}
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.has-text-align-justify{text-align:justify;}
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/*# sourceURL=wp-block-library-inline-css */
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</style>
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<style id="classic-theme-styles-inline-css">
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.wp-block-button__link{background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;color:#fff;font-size:1.125em;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);text-decoration:none}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff}.wp-block-accordion-heading{margin:0}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle{background-color:inherit!important;color:inherit!important}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:not(:focus-visible){outline:none}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:focus,.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:hover{background-color:inherit!important;border:none;box-shadow:none;color:inherit;padding:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20,1em) 0;text-decoration:none}.wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle:focus-visible{outline:auto;outline-offset:0}.wp-block-tab:not(.has-text-color){color:inherit!important}.wp-block-tab:not(.has-background){background-color:inherit!important}.wp-block-tab:focus,.wp-block-tab:hover{text-decoration:none}.wp-block-tab:focus-visible{outline:auto;outline-offset:0}
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/*# sourceURL=/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg-core/v23.9.1/build/styles/block-library/classic.min.css */
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</style>
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<style id="coblocks-inline-format-inline-css">
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.uppercase{text-transform:uppercase}
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/*# sourceURL=coblocks-inline-format-inline-css */
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</style>
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<link crossorigin='anonymous' rel='stylesheet' id='all-css-12-1' href='/_static/??-eJx9jEEOAiEQBD/kQECjeDC+ZWEnijIwYWA3/l72op689KFTVXplCCU3zE1z6reYRYfiUwlP0VYZpwxIJE4IFRd10HOU9iFA2iuhCiI7/ROiDt9WxfETT20jCOc4YUIa2D9t5eGA91xRBMZS7ATtPkTZvCtdzNEZt7f2fHq8Afl7R7w=&cssminify=yes' type='text/css' media='all' />
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<style id="global-styles-inline-css">
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<article id="post-1036" class="post-1036 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-resilience">
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<h1 class="entry-title">The problem with counterfactuals</h1> </header><!-- .entry-header --> <div class="entry-meta">
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<span class="byline">
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/author/lorinh/" rel="author">Lorin Hochstein</a> </span>
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/category/resilience/" rel="category tag">resilience</a> </span><!-- .cat-links -->
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<span class="published-on">
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<time class="entry-date published updated" datetime="2019-08-22T21:34:57-07:00">August 22, 2019</time> </span>
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<span class="word-count">2 Minutes</span> </div><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Incidents make us feel uncomfortable. They remind us that we don’t have control, that the system can behave in ways that we didn’t expect. When an incident happens, the world doesn’t make sense.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A natural reaction to an incident is an effort to identify how the incident could have been avoided. The term for this type of effort is <em>counterfactual</em> <em>reasoning</em>. It refers to thinking about how, if the people involved had taken different actions, events would have unfolded differently. Here are two examples of counterfactuals:</p>
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<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>If the engineer who made the code change had written a test for feature <em>X, </em>then the bug would never have made its way into production.</li><li>If the team members had paid attention to the email alerts that had fired, they would have diagnosed the problem much sooner.</li></ul>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Counterfactual reasoning is comforting because it restores the feeling that the world makes sense. What felt like a surprise is, in fact, perfectly comprehensible. What’s more, it could even have been avoided, if only we had taken the right actions and paid attention to the right signals.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While counterfactual reasoning helps restore our feeling that the world makes sense, the problem with it is that <strong>it doesn’t help us get better at avoiding or dealing with future incidents.</strong> The reason it doesn’t help is that counterfactual reasoning gives us an excuse to avoid the messy problem of understanding how we missed those obvious-in-retrospect actions and signals in the first place.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It’s one thing to say “they should have written a test for feature X”. It’s another thing to understand the rationale behind the engineer not writing that test. For example:</p>
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<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Did they believe that this functionality was already tested in the existing test suite?</li><li>Were they not aware of the existence of the feature that failed?</li><li>Were they under time pressure to get the code pushed into production (possibly to mitigate an ongoing issue)?</li></ul>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Similarly, saying “they should have paid closer to attention to the email alerts” means you might miss the fact that the email alert in question isn’t actionable 90% of the time, and so the team has conditioned themselves to ignore it.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To get better at avoiding or mitigating future incidents, you need to understand the conditions that enabled past incidents to occur. Counterfactual reasoning is actively harmful for this, because it circumvents inquiry into those conditions. It replaces “what were the circumstances that led to person X taking action Y” with “person X should have done Z instead of Y”.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Counterfactual reasoning is only useful if you have a time machine and can go back to prevent the incident that just happened. For the rest of us who don’t have time machines, counterfactual reasoning helps us feel better, but it doesn’t make us better at engineering and operating our systems. Instead, it actively prevents us from getting better.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Don’t ask “why didn’t they do Y instead of X?” Instead, ask, “how was it that doing X made sense to them at the time?” You’ll learn a lot more about the world if you ask questions about what did happen instead of focusing on what didn’t.</p>
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Published by <span class="author-name">Lorin Hochstein</span> </h2>
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View all posts by Lorin Hochstein </a>
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<strong>Published</strong>
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<time class="entry-date published updated" datetime="2019-08-22T21:34:57-07:00">August 22, 2019</time> </div><!-- .site-posted-on -->
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6 thoughts on “<span>The problem with counterfactuals</span>” </h2><!-- .comments-title -->
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<li id="comment-1547" class="comment byuser comment-author-jacobscottef69729e8d even thread-even depth-1 parent">
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<img referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt='Jacob Scott's avatar' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/b9418ae13c8958b3bc07be7078e4efb38bc14968489582fd5379b51a97cdfc90?s=48&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/b9418ae13c8958b3bc07be7078e4efb38bc14968489582fd5379b51a97cdfc90?s=48&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/b9418ae13c8958b3bc07be7078e4efb38bc14968489582fd5379b51a97cdfc90?s=72&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/b9418ae13c8958b3bc07be7078e4efb38bc14968489582fd5379b51a97cdfc90?s=96&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/b9418ae13c8958b3bc07be7078e4efb38bc14968489582fd5379b51a97cdfc90?s=144&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/b9418ae13c8958b3bc07be7078e4efb38bc14968489582fd5379b51a97cdfc90?s=192&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-48' height='48' width='48' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn"><a href="http://wordswordword.wordpress.com" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">Jacob Scott</a></b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div><!-- .comment-author -->
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2019/08/22/the-problem-with-counterfactuals/#comment-1547"><time datetime="2019-08-22T21:48:30-07:00">August 22, 2019 at 9:48 pm</time></a> </div><!-- .comment-metadata -->
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<p>Could counterfactual reasoning be useful in a simple system?</p>
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<div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2019/08/22/the-problem-with-counterfactuals/?replytocom=1547#respond" data-commentid="1547" data-postid="1036" data-belowelement="div-comment-1547" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to Jacob Scott" aria-label="Reply to Jacob Scott">Reply</a></div> </article><!-- .comment-body -->
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<li id="comment-1548" class="comment byuser comment-author-lorinh bypostauthor odd alt depth-2">
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<img referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt='Lorin Hochstein's avatar' src='https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/f2641f12e815a54896f8f2ac04660c52efb896e09131390ad2a6f2f5fca81432?s=48&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/f2641f12e815a54896f8f2ac04660c52efb896e09131390ad2a6f2f5fca81432?s=48&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/f2641f12e815a54896f8f2ac04660c52efb896e09131390ad2a6f2f5fca81432?s=72&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/f2641f12e815a54896f8f2ac04660c52efb896e09131390ad2a6f2f5fca81432?s=96&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/f2641f12e815a54896f8f2ac04660c52efb896e09131390ad2a6f2f5fca81432?s=144&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/f2641f12e815a54896f8f2ac04660c52efb896e09131390ad2a6f2f5fca81432?s=192&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-48' height='48' width='48' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn"><a href="https://lorinhochstein.wordpress.com" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">Lorin</a></b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div><!-- .comment-author -->
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2019/08/22/the-problem-with-counterfactuals/#comment-1548"><time datetime="2019-08-23T01:34:15-07:00">August 23, 2019 at 1:34 am</time></a> </div><!-- .comment-metadata -->
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<p>Maybe?</p>
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<div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2019/08/22/the-problem-with-counterfactuals/?replytocom=1548#respond" data-commentid="1548" data-postid="1036" data-belowelement="div-comment-1548" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to Lorin" aria-label="Reply to Lorin">Reply</a></div> </article><!-- .comment-body -->
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<img referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt='Ken Olstad's avatar' src='https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AAuE7mDgLQSDc8sdGpKe_63aFlmh20Rs8YWarMlZzwj52w' srcset='https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AAuE7mDgLQSDc8sdGpKe_63aFlmh20Rs8YWarMlZzwj52w 1x, https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AAuE7mDgLQSDc8sdGpKe_63aFlmh20Rs8YWarMlZzwj52w 1.5x, https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AAuE7mDgLQSDc8sdGpKe_63aFlmh20Rs8YWarMlZzwj52w 2x, https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AAuE7mDgLQSDc8sdGpKe_63aFlmh20Rs8YWarMlZzwj52w 3x, https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AAuE7mDgLQSDc8sdGpKe_63aFlmh20Rs8YWarMlZzwj52w 4x' class='avatar avatar-48' height='48' width='48' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">Ken Olstad</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div><!-- .comment-author -->
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<a href="https://surfingcomplexity.blog/2019/08/22/the-problem-with-counterfactuals/#comment-1549"><time datetime="2019-08-23T16:03:12-07:00">August 23, 2019 at 4:03 pm</time></a> </div><!-- .comment-metadata -->
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<p>Right! See “hindsight bias” (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias" rel="nofollow ugc">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias</a>), aka “knew-it-all-along phenomenon” or “creeping determinism”.</p>
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<p>“[T]he circumstances that led to person X taking action Y” (when we wish in hindsight that person X had taken action Z) is that there were so many possible futures and the value of Z depends on which future actually happens, but we don’t tend to acknowledge that we couldn’t know Z except in hindsight.</p>
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Pingback: <a href="https://www.awsfeed.com/2019/08/24/stuff-the-internet-says-on-scalability-for-august-23rd-2019/" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">Stuff The Internet Says On Scalability For August 23rd, 2019 – AWS Feed</a> </div>
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Pingback: <a href="https://nodramadevops.com/2019/08/the-work-iteration-retrospective-aka-sprint-retro/" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">The work iteration retrospective aka ‘Sprint retro’ | #NoDrama DevOps</a> </div>
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Pingback: <a href="http://words.wordword.club/2019/08/26/lorin-is-blogging/" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">Lorin is blogging – wordword words</a> </div>
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window.WP_Enqueue_Dynamic_Script = {
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loadScript: (handle) => {
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