29 lines
883 B
Markdown
29 lines
883 B
Markdown
---
|
||
title: "Forecast Accuracy"
|
||
type: concept
|
||
tags: [sales, forecast, accuracy]
|
||
last_updated: 2026-04-20
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Summary
|
||
- 定义：销售预测与实际结果的符合程度
|
||
- 目标：预测准确性应在承诺级别的 10% 以内
|
||
|
||
## Commit Criteria
|
||
- 基于可验证证据而非乐观主义
|
||
- 问题不是"感觉如何"，而是"需要什么条件才能成交，能否展示这些条件已满足的证据"
|
||
- 每个阶段应有明确的证据要求
|
||
|
||
## Categories
|
||
- **Upside**：通过努力可能成交
|
||
- **Commit**：基于证据将会成交
|
||
- **Closed**：已签约
|
||
|
||
## Rep Patterns
|
||
- 持续过度预测 → coaching 资格严谨性
|
||
- 持续低于预测 → coaching 交易控制和信心
|
||
|
||
## Connections
|
||
- [[Sales Coaching]]：通过预测准确性进行 coaching
|
||
- [[Sales Coach]]：实施预测准确性管理的 AI Agent
|
||
- [[Pipeline Review]]：pipeline review 支持预测 |